Welcome back! This past week we saw PSG and St. Etienne return to action as they played 90 minutes of schoolyard scrap football. Les Parisiens predictably emerged victorious, but my focus today is not so much on the French Cup trophy–but on its implications for their upcoming Italian fixture against Atalanta. I’ll deconstruct some observations from the game, but examine them through a lens defined by Gian Piero Gasperini’s free scoring side. In order to do that, I’ve taken some time to assess some of Atalanta’s strong points, condense them into a few categories that could hurt PSG, and have collected clips that reflect how Paris handled those situations in their first competitive match in recent memory. On the other hand, I’ll outline several advantages PSG might hold against La Nerazzuri, including a specific route by which they might look to exploit them, and judge how they executed on those fronts, too. Despite the win, the Final exposed several other elements that may prove worrisome for PSG, including Mbappe’s significant injury scare, disciplinary concerns, a lack of ruthlessness in the final third, and more. At the end, I’ll propose my prediction for how the quarterfinal tie might fair, taking into consideration some historical implications of the tournament alongside the new single-leg format.
Our Lens: Categorizing Atalanta’s Strengths
Having followed Serie A loosely this year, I’ve heard plenty about Gasperini’s fluid form of soccer, but haven’t seen much beyond their demolition of Valencia and undeserving recent draw with Juventus. As such, I’ve gotten some basic background info from a few colleagues that’ve kept closer tabs on them this season, with the added help of Tifo Football’s YouTube channel, and several match recap videos. Here are the basics.
Atalanta typically field a 3-4-1-2 but it hardly remains that way throughout the match. Their brand is one of exchanging positions, overloading wide channels, incessant attempts at goal, and dynamic creativity. Their shape-shifting tendencies are confirmed by the distribution of goals throughout their front line and attacking midfield, with Zapata, Muriel, and Iličić contributing 18, 18, and 15 Serie A goals apiece, alongside both Gosens and Pasalic with 9, Malinovsky with 7, and Papu Gomez with 6. In UCL, Iličić has banged in 5 already, each of which were tucked away against Valencia, but there are rumors he may be out for the match. If the rumors aren’t true, PSG will hope he doesn’t have the same vendetta for Ligue 1 teams as he does those representing La Liga.
As of May 2020, Atalanta took more shots per game than any other Italian outfit, embodying the “can’t score if you don’t shoot mentality” in full force. Their general progression is to overload the wide areas to gain overwhelming advantages through the channels, drive through width, and only enter the center of the field in the definition phase. Even as they distribute up to five players in the flanks at once, they ensure to stay spread out on the opposing side of the field, too. This gives them terrific opportunities to draw the opposition towards one end of the pitch, swing it to the other, and penetrate the vacancies that’ve now formed. With aerial threats like Duvan Zapata up top, they’ve had strong success getting on the end of flighted balls from these regions.
But Atalanta don’t just drive down the wings. With emerging midfield maestro Papu Gomez, they have loads of unpredictability and creativity in the little-occupied center, as his deft distribution allows for very rapid transition from the sides of the field. He has the speed and agility to join the fun out wide, but also the shooting capability to threaten from the center.
Malinovsky serves as a longshot threat in the middle–scoring a thunderous FK through a swiss-cheese Parma wall on Tuesday, while Pasalic looks to run in behind the striking duo and often enjoys 1v1s with opposing keepers. Iličić tends to drop into the 10 role for distance efforts, while Zapata’s deceptive agility and speed allows him to excel at dragging CBs wide for midfielders to drive centrally. Muriel, coming in off the bench, has far and away the best goals-to-minutes ratio in Europe, and will be hoping to continue that streak. The group is extremely versatile.
Thus, PSG have a group of expert problem solvers on their hands. If defenses don’t pack the width, they’ll be overrun and dominated in Atalanta’s favorite “low risk” regions. If they sit back and look to overpower the striker duo, midfielders will scare them with rockets from deep, and force them to rethink their decisions. If they manage to cover all those bases, fullbacks Hateboer and Gosens will wreak havoc, unaccounted for. They’ve built up a very intriguing versatility.
From this, I’ve deduced 4 primary criteria by which to evaluate PSG in their match against St. Etienne:
- Dealing with high shot volume
- Dealing with wide overloads
- Exploiting the open center
- Dealing with “transitionality” of positions
Dealing with high shot volume will pertain to PSG’s goalkeeper and defender concentration, defensive compactness, how they manage second balls dropping in the penalty area, and shot blocking ability. Atalanta will likely spray the goalframe, so I’ll be looking to see how prepared Les Parisiens look for those efforts.
Dealing with wide overloads will examine how PSG handle numerical inferiorities in the flanks, their aerial ability to defend crosses, and the fullback personnel they have to work with. This is Atalanta’s primary method of overwhelming their opposition.
Exploiting the open center will regard clinicality in the final third, and the primary weakness I see in Atalanta’s structure–isolating Gomez in the middle of the park. Paredes showed off some brilliant high-packing longballs against St. Etienne, which could certainly punish La Dea. Neymar, Di Maria, and even Sarabia’s rapid transitional ability down the gut and through halfspaces could allow them to take advantage of Atalanta’s highly positioned widebacks/widemids, or control counters and drive through the gaping heart of Atalanta’s setup. Icardi’s ability to hold up play on the counter will also be scrutinized, as I foresee the UCL match being very focused on fast attacking sequences; there won’t be much careful build-up play from what I’ve been able to discern.
Dealing with “transitionality” of positions refers to Atalanta’s interchangeability, and how well Paris fairs with marking hand-offs as players crisscross the field and enter atypical positions. Coping with amorphousness will be a deciding factor in the quarterfinal.
And lastly, I’ve added three other small notes outside of the main ones: capitalizing on opposition defensive mistakes (something that’s led to many of Atalanta’s goals conceded, this year), general discipline under stress, and challenging for 50/50s.
Dealing with High Shot Volume
Atalanta enters their final matchday against Inter with 98 goals scored, leading Serie A with Internazionale’s 79 tally coming in second, Lazio’s 78 in third, and Juve’s 75 rounding out the attacking powerhouses. Per footystats.org, the Nerazzuri have been averaging 2.67 goals per match (AGPM), with an average of 20.03 shots per match (ASPM), as well. Though they currently sit in 3rd place, these numbers can be compared to Real Madrid’s 1.84 AGPM, Dortmund’s 2.47, Manchester City’s 2.68, and PSG’s 2.78–to provide some general context. Real Madrid shoot 15.71 ASPM, while City shoot 20.05, Dortmund with 14.53, and PSG with 18.04.
Of course, these values have limited meaning without normalizing the scores based on the defensive difficulty of each respective league, as well as the specific teams they scored against. It’s easy to discredit Paris’ number based on Ligue 1’s common “Farmer’s League” tag, for instance, and you wouldn’t be wrong in doing so. But if anything, Serie A’s reputation for staunch defenses might further impress us–suggesting that while PSG’s metrics are inflated, their came against typically tougher opposition. Regardless of our perception, these numbers give us a loose ballpark for the level at which Atalanta is consistently scoring; they’re up there with the best.
Therefore, the first thing I was interested in inspecting was how PSG might handle this onslaught of shots–but it proved to be a little difficult. PSG faced 11 officially registered shots against their green-cladded rivals, but only 3 were on target. The statistics from SofaScore show that 5 missed the frame of the goal, while 3 were blocked. Out of the 3 that troubled the keeper, none truly did, as evidenced by the scoreline. Most of these efforts came in the dying minutes of the match, as St. Etienne bombarded the PSG box with several consecutive freekicks in the minutes leading up to extra time.
Thus, in terms of evaluating PSG’s bravery in throwing bodies in front of ball-missiles, there was little to work with. Defensive compactness? It was reasonable, but St. Etienne’s approach was rarely one of driving through the center for shots with their feet. Instead, their overwhelming physical presence encouraged flighted balls in from the flanks, onto any of their beefcake players soaring through the air for a miraculous header. With so many headers as St. Etienne’s attempts on goal, there was less material to support any suggestion of PSG being good at bulletproofing their 6-yard box like Sean Dyche’s Burnley. I’ll touch upon this in greater detail, later on, but their defensive aerial ability proved much more formidable than in attack.
When it comes to one’s ability to remain a defensive stronghold despite a barrage of bullets, concentration is of the essence. Making big plays may catch the highlight reel, but consistency is key. The always eloquent and eternally applicable Art of War describes this conept:
“He wins his battles by making no mistakes. Making no mistakes is what establishes the certainty of victory, for it means conquering an enemy that is already defeated.”
Sun Tzu, The Art of War
With the understanding that PSG might face Atalanta’s average of 20.03 average shots per match, they will have to be switched on at all times. Any lapse in focus could result in one of those chances finding the back of the net. With Atalanta’s current form, it might not even be a question of “if”, but rather, “when”. If the goal is to delay the opening of the floodgates as much as possible, hoping that PSG’s potent attack can compensate for and outshine Atalanta’s firepower, then holding a tightly organized backline that plays no-nonsense defense will be vital. The subsequent question becomes, “can Paris really handle that?”
Holding this question high, we return to the difficulty of the Farmer’s League. The French golden boot race is significantly less interesting than those being held overseas. Italy has seen strikers Ciro Immobile and Cristiano Ronaldo with 35 and 31 goals each on the season, alongside Lukaku with 23, Caputo with 21, and Zapata, Joao Pedro, and Muriel all tied at 18–in 37 matches.
Ligue 1 has played 10 fewer games, but the front runners are Mbappe and Ben Yedder on 18, and Dembele with 16–Neymar, Osimhen, Diallo, and Icardi round out the top performers with between 12 and 13 each. If we extrapolate these figures, and assume the same scoring output in what would have been the remaining fixtures, we might expect Mbappe and Ben Yedder to land around 25 goals, Dembele around 23, and the rest 16 to 18. The difference between leagues is clear.
Even the top performers in France pale in comparison to the leaders in Serie A. Once you account for the fact that 3 of Ligue 1’s top 7 include PSG’s starting frontline, you’re left with slim pickings. Atalanta only have two strikers as top contenders because they distribute their goals so evenly throughout the team, with their Colombian duo tied for 5th place in the golden boot race.
But with a substitute like Muriel posting 18 goals domestically, averaging a Europe-leading efficiency of only 68 minutes per goal (compare to Mbappe’s otherwise-fantastic 84 minutes, Neymar’s 102, Icardi’s 106, Ben Yedder’s 121, Dembele’s 137, Osimhen’s 176, or Diallo’s 183), there is reason to be concerned about PSG’s experience facing comparatively efficient goal-scoring opposition.
Ben Yedder is a fine striker in fine form, as is the young Moussa Dembele, but the fact of the matter is–these players are fewer and further between in France than they are in Italy. And hammering the nail in the coffin, they simply aren’t even as good. Atalanta has practiced their defense against hotter opposition, by trying to neutralize Immobile, Ronaldo, and others, much more so than PSG has. We’d expect them to be better prepared, experientially, than Les Parisiens. It goes without saying that Serie A’s continuity amidst COVID will only further demarcate the recency with which Atalanta has dealt with such challenges. After months of inactivity, and with St. Etienne being the most potent attacking force they’ve faced since March, things don’t look so bright for PSG’s defensive sharpness.
For a moment, I sought to rid myself of these predispositions. Entering my match analysis phase, I wanted to evaluate Paris from these angles without and preconceived worries–but it was near impossible. Most defensive errors transpired as PSG looked to quickly build out of the back following regaining possession, with wayward passes somewhat frequently ending up at St. Etienne feet. Some might feebly blame this on the fact that the opposing defenders wore jerseys that blended into the field, camouflaging until they leaped out of their chameleonic state for interceptions, but I’ll stow away those excuses.
Purely defensively, PSG did expose several lapses of concentration–precisely what I was searching for. A reminder, the Jordan-sponsored lads faced a 17th place team that just narrowly staved off relegation. Their main scorers are Bouanga with 10, Hamouma with 6, and Khazri with 3. They drew a red card in the 31st minute, played the rest of the final with a man down, and still uncovered gaps in the PSG third line. Yikes.
At last, I emerge from this Final with worries about PSG’s ability to keep their heads screwed on straight for what will be an intense 90 minutes. Atalanta’s sheer quantity of attempts might erode at their morale over time–I’ll definitely keep my eye out for any signs of deterioration.
Dealing with Wide Overloads
As previously indicated, Atalanta employs a wide overloading tactic that can see up to 5 players in one channel at once. By doing this, they outnumber the opposition in what is frequently the least-occupied region, giving them a consistent advantage when they bombard those spaces.
As this is a frequent method for La Dea, I was interested in seeing how PSG could handle being overwhelmed out wide. Again, this proved to be somewhat challenging. As St. Etienne is a physically more imposing side, their skill was less focused in the flanks, are more concentrated in the center of the park, where they looked to use their strength to out muscle the opposition. It was therefore rare to see them with numbers up, out wide. That being said, it was unlikely that Khazri was going to dribble with the impetus of Papu or Muriel, so the comparison may have been moot point, regardless.
On the contrary, PSG actually looked quite impressive in outnumbering their opponents in wide spaces–and on defense. Marquinhos and Thiago spread wider in build-up to allow Gueye or Paredes to collect the ball from deep, leaving the CBs ready to plug developing counterattacks in the halfspaces, or even pinch darting wingers until they were forced over the touchline. While the fullbacks often pressed intensely in the channels, Gueye and Paredes often contributed in suffocating the space and limiting interior passing lanes with their cover shadows. Neymar and Di Maria even surprisingly contributed to narrowing the creativity St. Etienne might’ve had out wide–which contradicted some of my previous assumptions about their lack of defensive contribution. With a fullback pressing the ball from depth, a center mid surging from the side, and an attacking midfielder zooming in behind, Les Verts were often left with few options but to force the ball. This looked to be well-coordinated, for the most part, and will certainly be employed against Atalanta’s width-heavy 3-4-1-2.
So since it was rare for St. Etienne to find superiorities in the flank, and having noted PSG’s defensive overloading abilities, I became more interested in the personnel Les Rouge et Bleu had to work with at fullback, plus how they coped with crosses swung into fearless heading kamikazes.
With the recent sale of 6’3″ Thomas Meunier to Dortmund, Bernat’s general averageness, and Kurzawa’s general underwhelmingness–PSG can’t afford to consider fullback as a position with luxurious options. Thilo Kehrer picked up a knock in the 20th minute, leaving the CB-turned RB on the sideline while tiny youngster Dagba took the pitch. On the lefthand side, Mitchel Bakker, a former Ajax product, manned the wide spaces. 21 and 20 years of age–respectively.
As for Bakker, this was an immense match. I had no clue who he was at kickoff, but he quickly made his name known. With countless tough tackles and sharp interceptions, his maturity was exceptional. At 6’1″ his figure was competitive with the taller St. Etienne players, as he regularly won 50/50 balls–something Paris struggled with immensely, elsewhere on the field. Bakker’s first start for PSG came in a February 2020 demolition of Dijon, suggesting that this Final may well have been the biggest break of his career so far. He threatened up and down the pitch, combining with Neymar at LAM, and showing strong confidence/eagerness to contribute to goal-scoring chances. Holland has long needed a successor to Daley Blind’s role, and though this may be reactionary or influenced by recency bias, they may well have found their guy. Bakker played the full 90 and was, to me, the brightest star on the field besides Neymar himself.
Dagba was less noticeable, with his smaller stature making him less of a formidable defender. In any case, he executed reasonably well, but without calling too much attention to himself. He is certainly a little more agile of a player than Bakker might be, but not by much.
Regardless of their defensive performances, my initial concern leading into the Atalanta tie is the lack of experience for both players. Confronted with a hot Italian attack, it’ll be much harder to showcase their abilities than against an inferior St. Etienne. With Zapata pulling wide into the left, in particular, I’m wary of flighted balls that might be impossible for Dagba to deal with. I was surprised to find the French fullback listed at 5’7″ and 137 pounds, as he seemed much closer to Papu Gomez’ diminutive stature in game, but whatever his official stats are, he’ll be no match for Zapata’s notorious vertical leap; even less so, his ability to stand his ground.
If Bakker starts, I see him having a proper match against the Bergamo outfit. With Iličić potentially sitting out of the match, due to personal reasons, they’ll have less gunpowder stored on the attacking right. Hateboer is 6’2″, and with Bakker’s excellent footwork for the French Cup Final, I see him having greater success handling a wideback of similar size and physicality. I’d be intrigued to see a player of his profile marking Duvan, instead, but its unlikely that Paris will compromise their width in build-up by playing a leftie on the right.
Atalanta is also hugely versed in heading the ball from crosses, so this was another element I was intrigued by. Between Marquinhos and Thiago Silva, they’re quite a short CB pair, both listed at 6′ 0″. There is a great deal of discussion regarding the importance of centerbacks being towering figures, but one thing’s for certain: it’s harder to win a flighted ball over Niklas Sule than it is Javier Mascherano. Yes, these are extremes, but with Zapata in the box, you need every inch you can afford.
Though the two are arguably short for their positions, Marquinhos, especially, displayed fine aerial ability. His jumping allowed for him to find himself on the end of most balls swung inside, while Thiago looked to clean up after him. Frequently occupying the RCB role throughout the season, alongside either his Brazilian partner or Presnel Kimpembe, you’d likely feel more comfortable matching him up with the Colombian. We could see some spicy aerial duels between the two South Americans. I’m sure Dagba will be delighted to see the brace-faced CB helping out, in this regard.
Iličić comes in at a registered 6’3″ but dominates, predominantly, on the ground. His agility and knack for goals is almost reminiscent of a former Swedish PSG striker, but as mentioned, he’ll looks to be off the teamsheet.
If Muriel comes in to replace him, Gomez is pushed up to RF with Pasalic in behind, or Malinovsky plays the second widestriker, we’ll have a 5′ 10″, 5’5″ or 5’11” player up against Thiago. Such a pairing leaves little to be concerned about above ground, as the specified handful hardly resemble salmon leaping from a stream. Instead, they’ll challenge one of the top central defenders of the decade to a battle on the turf. His age might be wearing away at Thiago’s brilliance, ever-so-slightly, but he’s still got the experience, technique, communication, and leadership of the Godins, Chiellinis, and Piques of our generation.
I’d fancy him against Malinovsky, in particular, as RF feels marginally out-of-place for a player who’s seemingly at home around 35 yards from goal and with space to launch belters. Gomez’s form and agility, on the other hand, might be a bit more problematic. Mind you, Thiago regularly faces Mbappe, Neymar, and Di Maria in training–so, to serve as the devil’s advocate, he may be best trained for skillful dribblers. Muriel looks impactful as ever when he comes on, so that potential matchup might be a battle of whose desire is simply stronger. Peripheral substitution options like Musa Barrow, Amad Traore, or Roberto Piccoli don’t necessarily bring anything that’ll make the Brazilian sweat more than the average Ligue 1 finisher.
If I were Atalanta–I’d leave Gomez to patrol the center with the Colombians higher-up. Pasalic will be an excellent option off the bench, while the Ukranian center mid will enjoy several long-range efforts if he’s kept in the middle. These shots will be more worrisome than what Ryad Boudebouz managed to pull off in the Final, and may bring a more unique facet to Atalanta’s play than what he’d offer higher up the pitch.
For argument’s sake, if there were to be any switching of these payers–say, Bakker at RB, or Duvan at RF, I think the pairings would be well-suited for PSG. The Dutch international would be a pleasure to watch against the in-form Orobici striker–while I’m certain that Marquinhos would enjoy sitting across the table from Luis Muriel. That is, so long as PSG’s overall unit is able to maintain their level for the two halves without blinking. One misstep, and Atalanta will be sure to take advantage.
Regardless of Zapata’s partner in crime, his potential success in nodding the ball over PSG’s centerbacks can also be projected based on his prior experiences. In Italy, he’s had to win headers over hulking figures like Federico Fazio, Diego Godin, Matthijs de Ligt, Leonardo Bonucci, Kalidou Koulibaly, Daniele Rugani, Milan Skriniar, and more–all of which exceed his listed height. Marquinhos is arguably Ligue 1’s best header of the ball behind 6’6″ Naldo, Duvan has certainly learned how to out-jump even those that look down upon him. If Marquinhos is able to stick to Zapata in the box, we might see the true definition of 50/50 emerge, with nearly identical noggin-ability. If the Colombian is able to isolate Thiago or even Dagba on the far post, he might be looking at a handful of less-contested chances.
Exploiting the Open Center
The aforementioned points might leave us a bit concerned for PSG, but we mustn’t write them off quite yet. Atalanta’s Slovenian striker was arguably the UCL’s hottest player entering lockdown, but might not feature against Les Parisiens. If we remove Iličić from the equation, Atalanta don’t only lose goal-scoring output, but they may be forced to shuffle their cards in the center. As alluded to previously, Atalanta already pursues a tactic that dominates width, overloading the channels and maintaining options on the opposite side of the field, as well. In doing so, they can stretch the field extremely effectively, but leave themselves horribly exposed to counters through the midfield strip–and they’ll be even more unprepared if Gomez is forced to play the RF role in Iličić’s absence.
PSG’s most promising sequences against Les Verts came from rapid combination play through the middle—counterattacking with balls quickly picked up and distributed by their 6s or CBs. Paredes, in particular, put on a masterclass of long distance passing that bypassed multiple defensive lines at once. This notion of penetrating levels of the opposition, has evolved into a new soccer metric known as “packing”.
A classic example from the PSP French blog reminds us of a match I’ve referenced in a previous article: the UEFA Champion’s League semi-final, second leg, between Barcelona and Internazionale in 2010. The post-match stats looked something like this:
Initial inspection might tell us that Barcelona, at the bare minimum, dominated the fixture. A glance at the historical scoreline might confirm our inkling, with Barcelona winning 1-0 at home. But for those watching, this was a masterclass by Mourinho’s Inter. Barcelona scored, sure, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the 3-1 Italian home-victory on aggregate. The above statistics gave an awfully shoddy image of the match, and after viewing, we feel almost insulted by how misrepresentative their juxtaposition is.
“…it was the most beautiful defeat of my life.”
Jose Mourinho, on Inter’s 1-0 loss to Barcelona, and reaching the UCL Final
Dissatisfied by the numbers’ ability to capture and depict what many so clearly observed on TV, statisticians set out to improve these match-reporting metrics. Four years later, another infamous example arose at the 2014 World Cup. In Christoph Biermann’s Football Hackers, he poses and entertaining challenge: In the image below, try to guess which game the shown statistics were taken from.
Examining each category one by one, we might think the table shows numbers from Germany’s 1-0 extra-time win over Argentina, Costa Rica’s 0-0 penalty loss to Holland, or even Belgium vs. USA in the Round of 16. We’d never assume it represents Germany’s horrific 7-1 demotion of Brazil.
Yep, you read that right. Germany 7-1 Brazil.
How!? The table makes it seem like the match was totally competitive–let alone the most one-sided implosions of a host team in Mundial history. Statisticians and analysts alike became increasingly interested in finding a better solution. Perhaps inspired by their country’s demolition of La Seleção, the fix came from the most unlikely of places–two players in the German Bundesliga.
Allegedly frutrated by their lack of statistical recognition in their respective sides, Stefan Reinartz and Jens Hegeler joined forces to unveil a newfangled method of quantifying the quality of any given pass or dribble. The idea was simple: playing the ball around and keeping possession can be valuable, but a player that is able to slice through their opponent should be rewarded more, from a stats standpoint, than one that completes 50 unguarded passes to their keeper. And so, “packing” was born.
Without getting bogged down with the logistics of quantifying these plays, packing introduces objectivity in discerning how many opponent players were “caught out” by a given move. For instance, Messi, Pavard, and Ederson have pulled off three ludicrous examples of long-distance balls into attackers, from deep within their own halves. Our impressed reaction is largely due to the manner in which they “threaded the needle”, an awfully difficult thing to do. At the top level, it’s hard enough to play a pass by one defender, or between two, let alone one that surges between multiple pairs of defenders. Just ask any of your players in a Rondo training session–the “split” ball is highly coveted, but it’s much easier to play around the defenders. All things considered, the most direct route from A to B is the straight line between both end points; if the pass is on, and you can execute it, it’s typically not a bad idea. Enjoy three state-of-the-art, high-packing passes:
These examples are certainly crème de la crème, but the 26 year-old Argentine midfielder showed glimpses of an ability that might be the secret key to unlocking Atalanta. Even amidst a physically redoubtable St. Etienne midfield, he threaded the needle to find Neymar, Di Maria, Sarabia, and Icardi on numerous occasions. The ensuing plays were consistently lacking in their final third definition, but the creation in build-up was highly entertaining. Neymar and El Fideo’s ability to collect the ball and turn quickly, or lay it off to one another, was a huge factor in the success of these sequences. Conveniently, certain variations of the packing metric also consider a players’ ability to receive the ball. Many of PSG’s players would rank highly in this regard.
When we consider Atalanta’s spread-out nature, Paredes’ skill becomes a huge secret weapon. Imagine The Nerazurri with 5 players in a flank, 3 in the opposing one, and Gomez isolated in the center. If PSG recuperate the ball in a vaguely central position, it’ll be a piece of cake for packing artist Leandro to advance with pace through vertical seams. If his performance against Les Verts can be replicated, Atalanta may grow increasingly wary of spreading so far wide, potentially forcing them to negate their biggest strength.
Adding to this point, Thiago Silva also showed signs of having laser-beam vision. Albeit making these passes less frequently–due to the added risk of a CB pulling them off–he executed two in particular that were amongst the most impressive balls of the game. Both he and Paredes will find even more room to play such passes against Atalanta.
Furthermore, once Neymar or Di Maria are in space and attacking on the counter, they’re amongst the best in the world at creating opportunities for one another. Time and time again vs. St. Etienne, the duo received with open field and caused their opponents to panic. Any backline in the world would be worried with those two sprinting at them.
PSG’s double-10s might also find comfort in Atalanta’s severe deficiency in “defending against skillful players”. The claim, made by Whoscored’s strengths and weaknesses categories on the Bergamo team’s page, lists this quality as Atalanta’s sole “very weak” trait. In fact, their uninspiring ability to protect the lead and prevent individual mistakes is something we’ll also touch upon in a few moments.
I’m sure there’s no need to remind anyone, but feel free to refresh your memory with Neymar’s Puskas Award-winning solo-goal for Santos in 2011. Here, he was only 19. If Atalanta struggles with players of his profile, they’ll be lucky if Mbappe, isn’t healthy to play alongside the Brazilian. With the two of them joining forces, I’d be extremely concerned for Toloi, Palomino, Djimsiti, and Co. But as you can see in the clip below, Neymar rarely needs much help to rip apart defenses. I’m certain the black and blue defenders will have their fair share of Joga Bonito inspired nightmares in the days leading up to the encounter.
But as excited as I might get by the prospect of Neymar and Di Maria backheeling and flicking the ball up the middle–I stumbled across yet another troubling reality late into writing this article: El Fideo is suspended on yellow card accumulation.
This hadn’t dawned on me until I read an article on Mbappe and how his absence, alongside Di Maria’s, has the PSG camp a bit shaken up top.
“Alongside Di Maria’s?” I asked. Ah jeez–I hadn’t even realized. Shaken up top? That may well be a total understatement. It’s becoming harder and harder to see silver linings for Les Rouge et Bleu.
Without the Angel on his shoulder, Neymar will likely be accompanied by a less-dynamic Pablo Sarabia. Pablo’s a reasonable player, but as you can tell by the video clips above, he doesn’t quite bring the same spark that Di Maria does, nor the extensive Champions League experience. Angel and Ney have a certain respect and chemistry that make them a formidable duo. Without two of Paris’ top attacking players, Atalanta will find it easier to focus their efforts on double teaming the Brazilian, and physically trying to outplay him.
Naturally, Mbappe will need to be replaced by Chupo-Mouting, or by fortifying midfield with Veratti, instead. No matter how you spin it, it’s hard to see PSG in the same glittering light that we might have orginally.
Before we get all down in the dumps, let’s take a step back and examine Atalanta’s defense in general, in hopes of uncovering some sliver of hope for Paris. In fact, it is easy to notice a broader issue for the Italians that could prove to be just the opening PSG need. Despite their league-leading goal-scoring output, La Dea struggle significantly on the defensive end. Many of their matches are high scoring, with a recent 6-2 win over Brescia, 7-2 pounding of Lecce, and a 7-1 demolition of Udinese back in October 2019. But there’s something disconcertingly shared between these scorelines: they simply can’t keep the ball out of their own net.
Atalanta doesn’t win by shutting teams out–they focus on simply overpowering them. The second leg against Valencia was a 4-3 victory. They emerged victorious in a 3-2 win over Lazio. The list goes on. They may have scored 98 goals in 37 Seria A fixtures, but they’ve also let in 46, averaging 1.26 GA per match. Fiorentina and Hellas Verona–sitting in 10th and 11th, have posted nearly identical numbers. In their referenced games against bottom-feeders Brescia and Lecce, alone, they allowed 4 goals to be scored against them. Not exactly what you want from hopeful title contenders.
Thus, while Atalanta’s attack has been monstrous, their defensive performance is far from leak proof, even against miserable opposition. Perhaps Di Maria and Mbappe’s absence won’t entirely eliminate Paris’ chances to score. Gasperini, himself, acknowledged his team’s tendency to get caught up in the moment and forget their defensive responsibilities, in the interview quote, below. He later recognizes that these are mistakes to learn from–so we’ll see if they’ve improved their habits against Paris.
“We are on the one hand very satisfied, as we’d have happily accepted a scoreline like that. Yet we end up feeling regret over conceding that away goal, as we really shouldn’t have made that mistake when 4-0 up and it wasn’t the only situation like that. We need to be more precise when we go to the Mestalla. If we want to get into the Champions League quarter-finals, we have to play like this at the Mestalla too, prove we deserve to be there with a show of strength and win there too. We are a team who create many chances, it could perhaps have had more goals for us and them tonight. We created our goals, they sort of received gifts from us on theirs. We got a bit euphoric and lost sight of our concentration at times.”
Gasperini on Atalanta’s 4-1 1st leg win over Valencia, and giving up an away goal
To continue along the head coach’s train of thought, many of the goals La Dea have conceded this year have come specifically from defensive errors, granting their opponents chances due to their own lapses in concentration–less so by their own attacking merits. By giving away “gifts”, as Gasperini phrased it, Atalanta have trouble closing out games and keeping their opponents at bay. While on the one hand, they mercilessly punish other teams with goals, it’s almost as if they feel bad for the opposition. I’d like to hope this isn’t actually the case, but they certainly have an unnerving proclivity to let their victims get a consolation goal or two. Such is evidenced by the large scorelines in most of the Nerazzurri’s fixtures, but this behavior feels dismissive, and a recipe for disaster. PSG, of all teams, knows very well how out-of-hand a comeback can get in the final minutes of a UCL match. The Italians will look to minimize costly errors when the stage is set in August.
Needless to say, if Italian relegation sides were able to capitalize on these moments, PSG will hope they can too–but this, too, looked to be one of Paris’ biggest shortcomings in the Final. They generated quite an ensemble of chances, but due to the tackling heroics of Fofana, or their own inability to convert, only put 1 in the net. Moreover, they needed Mbappe’s blistering run to get it done. PSG had hardly any ice in their veins to put the match to bed, and allowed St. Etienne to build up hope until the seconds ran off the clock. With Sarabia and Icardi both misfiring, they’ll hope that the poor finishing form doesn’t turn into a Champions League dry spell. The big-money former Inter-man found himself in wide roles and often even dipping into creative positions more than holding up play and threatening goal, against St. Etienne. He’ll need to be more of a clinical scorer in the UCL, and hope that his Serie A experience lends itself to an upper hand. I haven’t even touched upon Edinson Cavani and his choice to let his contract run out in June. The Uruguayan is PSG’s all-time leading scorer with 200 goals, and he won’t even be an option off the bench. With Mbappe out, one could envision Neymar playing LF, but this would draw him too far out of the build-up, where he showed glimmers of brilliance throughout the match. You’d prefer to hand Neymar the ball deeper, and with the chance to create, rather isolate him high and try to find him in space. The more centrally he’s able to be positioned, the better balance Les Parisiens might find. But he can’t do it all on his own.
No matter how Tuchel might position his pieces, they look visibly shorthanded in attack, while those available will have to re-calibrate their target seeking abilities. Missing sitters and 1v1 chances may be permissible in a semi-competitive domestic cup, but they’ll need to be capitalized on in the UCL. The added pressure from PSG’s reputation of bottling Champions League matches will mean that laser-focus in these moments will be critical to their mission of advancing to the quarterfinals. The atmosphere will feel less intimidating without fans, while single elimination will remove the chances of a second 6-1 2017-esque Remontada, but PSG will have a mental barrier to cope with, regardless. Without the final matches of Ligue 1 to focus on, all eyes have been on the UCL crown since March, with anticipation building in both positive and negative fashion. For PSG, this is it. This match can define their season.
As we’ve noticed with various clubs, many of which find themselves in the UCL knockouts concurrently, once a detrimental image becomes cast over a side, it can become a truly inescapable shadow. Consider England’s suffocating international tournament record with PK shootouts, or Higuain’s history of missing utterly indispensable chances in finals. These psychological pitfalls can be tough to navigate. Emerging from previous years’ disappointments will be a challenge, but tucking away gifted chances with aplomb might be just what the team needs to build back their confidence in Europe’s biggest competition. Perhaps Paris can be motivated by Lecce and Brescia’s goals, or even Atalanta’s contagious attacking joy itself. If new blood comes into the starting XI, perhaps they’ll have a clean slate and a point to prove, too. Whatever the solution may be, they’ll need to walk on the pitch locked, loaded, and ready to battle. We’ll see who emerges from the rubble.
Dealing with “transionality” of positions
This category showed the fewest clues to work with. For the most part, PSG did well in communicating once double-teamed runs were made at one defender, and in other similar situations. Overlaps were dealt with nicely, as were the occasional deep players surging forward, or high players pulling deep. Frankly, I realized that without playing a team as willing as Atalanta is to exchange positions and flow freely, this was a tough thing to evaluate. St. Etienne were inspiring in their movement, as they spent most of the match reacting to PSG, instead of taking their own initiative. While in the final ten minutes, it appeared to be all them, most players packed the box and waited for crosses. Very little to work with.
All things considered, just because I set out with a lens in mind, doesn’t mean I’ll necessarily find much. A sailor may embark on a fishing trip with hopes of capturing 4 varieties of sea creatures, and only emerge with 3–but dinner will still be served. I wish I’d seen, or been able to perceive, more interesting examples of St. Etienne challenging PSG with their dynamism and interchange, but alas, my notes looked fairly blank at fulltime. I’m the first to challenge myself with the notion that “I must have missed something”–which is entirely possible–but there are so many items to evaluate simultaneously, here, that we must move on. That feeling of dissatisfaction will motivate me to even further peel my eyes in the next analysis. Onto the next one!
Bits and Pieces
To draw my lens-based analysis to a close, I want to draw attention to a collection of smaller details I picked up on.
The first of these is PSG’s ability to capitalize on defensive mistakes. I’ve touched upon Atalanta’s propensity to make them, and Paris’ poor finishing, but how well did they react to blunders near the opponent’s goal? The nature of serendipity is such that we don’t always see blunders of significant magnitude. There were a few small mistakes by St. Etienne, resulting in a loose back pass that gave up a deep throw-in, or hesitation from Moulin with the ball at his feet–but none proved to be too disastrous. In the sole play that St. Etienne players paused and failed to play to the whistle, an unconvincing effort was taken at goal. Though I would’ve appreciated more signs of PSG’s readiness or ineptitude in capitalizing on these errors, I’d be grasping at straws if I suggested so. Small sample size, and therefore, I’ll move right along.
The second item of interest was discipline under stress. I brought it up earlier, but the Champions League is always season-defining for PSG, as it’s been a long time since Ligue 1 was regarded as the same caliber as La Liga, EPL, Bundesliga, or even Serie A (if it ever truly was). The term “top 5 leagues” encompasses all of them, but the gap between the top four and the French in fifth has been widely recognized for years. Winning the trophy domestically is now seen as a baseline expectation, while the UCL is the ultimate proof that their project is more than a Middle-Eastern-backed cash cow. The team has struggled with celebrity personalities and has never quite convinced the public to take them seriously–so moments like these will require a certain maturity and leadership to get past. There will be no room for Ibra-type arrogance, nor punching fans in the stands, a temptation Neymar has succumbed to in the past.
The taunts and tensions will be thrown to aggravate PSG, but will they finally be able to keep their cool and avoid collapse? What harbingers can we discover from the French Cup Final?
In a recent press conference, Tuchel backed his star Brazilian, saying “I’m not surprised. He came back in a good state of mind, in good shape”, but the scuffles that broke out against St. Etienne may well have shaken the mentality of the players. Les Verts are simply notorious for hacking at Parisien ankles, and with such a vital match up ahead, it was hardly surprising that PSG reacted so viscerally to moments of aggression or violence by their opponents. The Captain Perrin’s tackle on Mbappe was simply the first of many, as St. Etienne racked up 6 yellow cards and the one obvious red. Maquinhos, Bakker, Paredes, and even Veratti from the bench, were booked as well–and this raised more of a red flag.
Believe me, I’m all for defending your players. After Perrin’s slicing down of baby Kylian, I don’t blame the PSG side one bit for rushing to the scene. He’s the Ligue 1 top scorer, a near-inevitable future Balon d’or Winner, and a fundamental piece of the puzzle against Atalanta. Now, he’s emerging from the lockeroom on crutches post-halftime. Especially if the rash behavior is rooted in history, I’d be furious, too. PSG have much more to lose, here.
Yet, in moments like these, you can’t let emotions boil over. Players have become artful instigators in recent years, picking fights and drawing fouls to waste time or rack up cautions for their opponents. On a yellow, defenders can afford many fewer risks than with no cards on their mind. An example could even be made of Di Maria’s suspension, another adverse consequence of poor discipline.
In a recent interview with the Caioba Game Show, Everton attacker Richarlison shed light on a fight he infamously picked with Virgil van Dijk in the Merseyside Derby. These tactics are pure shithousery, but they’ve become an integral part of modern gamesmanship.
“I asked him ‘who do you think you are?’ …we were getting a draw and I was just trying to pick any fight to waste time… but it was nothing out of the ordinary. In the whole fight we wasted five minutes, which was good for the team.”
Richarlison, on his words to VVD to wind down the clock
Thus, PSG must do their best to avoid falling for tricks like the one Richarlison employed. Often viewed as a collection of diva-individuals, they’ll need to put egos aside and withhold gut reactions. Mitchel Bakker’s sprint and shove in the kerfuffle that unfolded after Perrin’s tackle was a sign of standing up for his teammate, but also a needless way to get a card as a defender. Veratti’s chirps from the bench gave him a caution before he even entered the field. St. Etienne was a match destined to to boil blood, and is perhaps an extreme example here–but the Paris has got to be mindful of those tense moments. I’m certain that Atalanta will look to ruffle a few feathers.
Moving on to the final note: 50/50s. This is separate from crosses defended, which I found reasonably decent success from PSG. Instead, this highlight reel emphasizes longballs, goalkicks, punts, etc. that were often up for grabs around the St. Etienne backline or central midfield. Before we get down and dirty, let me just make a disclaimer, this Parisien disaster is worse than a dropped box of fresh macarons. Fasten your seatbelts.
PSG were completely and utterly dominated in the air, outside of Marquinhos and perhaps Bakker. There’s no need to analyze it in further detail. This team lacks aerial presence. Gueye is discount version of Kante, while Paredes is far from rangy. Neymar and Di Maria aren’t winning headers over M’Vila or Camara, and clearly, neither were Icardi or Sarabia. This compilation is simply wild to witness. Total dominance by St. Etienne.
PSG may have to revisit any of their tactics that involve lofted passes into enemy territory. Navas should distribute through throws that find defender feet. Goalkicks should be taken short. Nearly every single opportunity that St. Etienne could win, they did. I can’t possibly envision a strategy in which chipping a ball to Neymar is a good idea. Even Icardi, a classical striker, could barely fend for himself for headers. La Dea will love claiming these flighted passes if PSG grant them. It may be rash, but I’d advise Tuchel’s staff to discourage anything played high that might be contended, outside of traditional crosses. Keep the ball on the ground as much as possible–that’s the way they’ll inflict the most pain onto Atalanta.
Closing Thoughts
I’ll get straight and to the point. This is going to be one hell of a test for PSG. In the French Cup Final, we saw a team lacking that critical goal-scoring edge, only mustering 1 contribution to the scoresheet against a near-relegated 10-man side. We note that two of their top performers, Mbappe and Di Maria, will be out for good measure, as well. The elephant in the room: mounting pressure on PSG in the UCL has also been acknowledged. When we consider the extra practice Atalanta have had with Serie A’s resumption, the higher caliber players they already face week-in week-out in Italy, and Paris’ propensity to get dragged into disciplinary issues, the odds swing further in La Dea’s favor. Les Rouge et Bleu showed strongly in defensively overloading the channels that Atalanta will be eager to attack through, threading the needle down the gut, and in combining creatively in tight spaces, but these items may not entirely compensate for the squad’s shortcomings.
Atalanta, on the other hand, is all the buzz right now. I don’t wish to be biased by a recent wave of support by online analysts and fans, but the proof is in the pudding. These lads can score from anywhere within their lineup, and do so often. Even with their missing talisman, Muriel and Zapata look ready to take the reins and bring their A-game. After being dismissed as “just another Argentine 10” for much of his career, Papu Gomez will be looking to make a statement, while the world is watching. Coming in with a roster that’s hardly recognizable to the layman, Atalanta has a point to prove about how futbol is won in 2020–not with questionable Financial Fair Play, not with Instagram followers, not with designer-appeal Jordan jerseys, but by leaving your soul on the pitch.
I can’t help but envision The Bergamo Boys pillaging the beautiful city of Paris.
With Mbappe and Di Maria, I could perhaps see a more even matchup. With Ilicic, it may not have mattered anyway. My Prediction: Final Score, Atalanta 3-1 PSG.
Till next time.
